916
WTNT45 KNHC 070239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSATE NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRI THIS
EVENING AND THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED...SUGGESTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN
ORGANIZATION. A 2151 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 40 KT WIND
VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAT SEEM BELIEVABLE.
ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR HENRI TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATE. HENRI IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.4N 55.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.3N 57.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.5N 59.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.8N 61.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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