578
WTNT41 KNHC 051445
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA CONTINUED TO IMPROVE UP UNTIL
LANDFALL...WHICH OCCURRED NEAR TASBAPAUNI NICARAGUA...OR ABOUT
60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS. AN 1117 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND AT THAT
TIME. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT. SINCE
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05. IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE
FIRST 36 TO 48 HOUR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK
MODELS MOVE IDA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
RIGHT OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 13.1N 83.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 13.6N 84.0W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 84.2W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.0N 84.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 84.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 08/1200Z 18.4N 85.4W 40 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 45 KT
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
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