023  
FONT12 KNHC 121432  
PWSAT2  
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017  
1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2017  
 
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) X(40) X(40)  
PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)  
PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 

 
FORECASTER BRENNAN  
 
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