579  
WTNT32 KNHC 150840  
TCPAT2  
 
BULLETIN  
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017  
500 AM AST SUN OCT 15 2017  
   
..OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND
 
   
..EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W  
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES  
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES  
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.  
 
INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN,  
AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED  
BY THE UK MET OFFICE.  
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK  
------------------------------  
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 18.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS  
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH (56 KM/H). A CONTINUED  
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED  
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE  
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL APPROACH IRELAND ON  
MONDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)  
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND  
ON MONDAY, BUT OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL  
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AS IT APPROACHES  
IRELAND ON MONDAY.  
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE  
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES  
(240 KM).  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).  
OPHELIA'S EYE RECENTLY PASSED NEAR A DRIFTING BUOY THAT MEASURED A  
PRESSURE OF 970.9 MB (28.67 INCHES).  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
WIND: GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN  
IRELAND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IRELAND BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO  
COMPLETION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS  
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS  
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY, AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS COULD BE  
EVEN GREATER.  
 
RAINFALL: OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO  
3 INCHES (50 MM TO 75 MM) WITH ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 4 INCHES (100  
MM) THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN IRELAND AND SCOTLAND. ACROSS  
EASTERN IRELAND, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH (25 MM)  
OR LESS.  
 
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE  
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.  
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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