507  
WTNT42 KNHC 151445  
TCDAT2  
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017  
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 15 2017  
 
AFTER DISPLAYING A DISTINCT EYE OVERNIGHT, RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY  
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE  
AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO  
WEAKENING FAST AND CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO  
DECREASE WHILE ANALYSTS ARE TRYING TO LOWER THEM AS MUCH AS THE  
TECHNIQUE ALLOWS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80  
KT. GIVEN THE COLD WATERS OF ABOUT 20 DEG C, AND THE STRONG SHEAR,  
OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL  
CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  
 
SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 33 KT, WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE  
FAST FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST, SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE  
DISSIPATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT  
AND MOST OF THE MODELS BRING A WEAKENED POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA TO THE  
SOUTHERN COAST OF IRELAND MONDAY MORNING (AST OR MIAMI TIME).  
THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN GREAT BRITAIN  
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  
 
STRONG WINDS AND RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA WILL  
ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. RESIDENTS IN THOSE  
LOCATIONS SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL  
SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL IMPACTS.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH  
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR IRELAND AND THE UNITED  
KINGDOM. DIRECT IMPACTS FROM WIND AND HEAVY RAIN IN PORTIONS OF  
THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS. FOR  
MORE DETAILS ON THE MAGNITUDE, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF IMPACTS FROM  
POST-TROPICAL OPHELIA, RESIDENTS IN IRELAND SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS  
ISSUED BY MET EIREANN, AND RESIDENTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD  
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE MET OFFICE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH  
12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER AVILA  
 
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