948  
FOPZ15 KNHC 271438  
PWSEP5  
 
TROPICAL STORM SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017  
1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017  
 
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
P SAN JOSE 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)  
P SAN JOSE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
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