681  
FONT13 KNHC 272044  
PWSAT3  
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017  
 
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)  
 
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)  
 
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)  
 
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)  
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)  
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)  
 
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)  
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 27(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)  
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)  
 
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)  
 
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)  
 
HAVANA 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)  
 
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 33(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)  
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)  
 
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)  
 

 
FORECASTER BRENNAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page