293  
WTPZ45 KNHC 280235  
TCDEP5  
 
TROPICAL STORM SELMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017  
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2017  
 
SELMA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL  
HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED  
BETWEEN A SMALL CURVED BAND TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING  
CONVECTION TO THE WEST. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED THAT SELMA  
IS A COMPACT SYSTEM, AND THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS  
ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND NO MORE THAN 40 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE  
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST  
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  
 
SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT SELMA HAS MOVED NORTHWARD TO  
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND THE STORM  
LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION. A  
GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, AND THAT SHOULD  
BRING THE CENTER OF SELMA NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR BY SATURDAY  
MORNING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST BASED  
ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION, AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE  
CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE SELMA APPROACHES THE  
COAST. ONCE THE STORM MOVES INLAND, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED  
AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF  
CENTRAL AMERICA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SELMA IS HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH  
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EL  
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING  
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 28/0300Z 12.3N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH  
12H 28/1200Z 13.4N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST  
24H 29/0000Z 14.3N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
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