732  
FONT13 KNHC 280240  
PWSAT3  
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017  
 
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)  
 
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)  
 
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)  
 
MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)  
 
KEY WEST FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)  
 
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)  
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 53(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)  
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)  
 
ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)  
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)  
 
HAVANA 34 X 23(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)  
 
ISLE OF PINES 34 4 55(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)  
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 49(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)  
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)  
 
CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)  
 
GRAND CAYMAN 34 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page