934  
WTNT33 KNHC 280544  
TCPAT3  
 
BULLETIN  
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017  
 
...SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE  
WEAKER...  
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...18.9N 84.6W  
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH  
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES  
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
NONE.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD, LA HABANA, CIUDAD DE LA HABANA, MATANZAS,  
CIENFUEGOS, AND VILLA CLARA CUBA  
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.  
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA  
KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK  
------------------------------  
AT 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE  
NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS  
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE  
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY  
AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  
 
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS  
ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS  
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO  
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...80 PERCENT  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
RAINFALL: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE  
THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL TOTALS:  
 
NORTHERN HONDURAS: ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS MORNING.  
 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA, NORTHERN BAHAMAS: 4 TO  
8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY.  
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND  
LANDSLIDES.  
 
SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING THE KEYS: 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED  
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY  
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.  
 
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE  
WARNING AREA IN CUBA LATER TODAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS  
TONIGHT.  
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.  
 

 
FORECASTER BERG  
 
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