322  
FONT13 KNHC 280839  
PWSAT3  
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017  
 
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.  
 
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)  
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME  
 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
 
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST  
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...  
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...  
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE  
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING  
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)  
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN  
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)  
 
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN  
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.  
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY  
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.  
 
 
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  
 
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM  
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED  
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO  
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU  
 
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  
LOCATION KT  
 
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)  
 
W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)  
 
MIAMI FL 34 X 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)  
 
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)  
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
MARATHON FL 34 X 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)  
 
KEY WEST FL 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)  
 
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 36(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)  
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)  
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)  
 
ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)  
 
HAVANA 34 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)  
 
ISLE OF PINES 34 23 7(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)  
 
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)  
 

 
FORECASTER BERG  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page