437  
WTPZ45 KNHC 280839  
TCDEP5  
 
TROPICAL STORM SELMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017  
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2017  
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF SELMA REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE  
WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER.  
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT, PERHAPS GENEROUSLY,  
ALTHOUGH THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY ASCAT DATA IN OVER 24 HOURS NOW.  
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN EL SALVADOR  
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE  
RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE  
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND NO SIGNIFICANT  
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS.  
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SELMA IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 2  
TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 28/0900Z 13.0N 88.8W 35 KT 40 MPH  
12H 28/1800Z 13.8N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
24H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
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