993  
WTNT33 KNHC 281142  
TCPAT3  
 
BULLETIN  
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017  
 
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN  
ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...   
..AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W  
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH  
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES  
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
NONE.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD, LA HABANA, CIUDAD DE LA  
HABANA, MATANZAS, CIENFUEGOS, AND VILLA CLARA  
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.  
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA  
KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR  
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.  
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK  
------------------------------  
AT 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE  
19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE  
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL  
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE STRAITS OF  
FLORIDA TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE  
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN  
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO  
ASSESS THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE.  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT  
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
RAINFALL: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE  
THE FOLLOWING RAINFALL TOTALS:  
 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA, NORTHERN BAHAMAS: 4 TO  
8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY.  
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND  
LANDSLIDES.  
 
SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING THE KEYS: 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED  
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY  
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.  
 
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE  
WARNING AREA IN CUBA LATER TODAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS  
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL  
BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.  
 
TORNADOES: A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR  
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page