876  
WTNT33 KNHC 281750  
TCPAT3  
 
BULLETIN  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2017  
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA  
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...  
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...21.8N 82.4W  
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH  
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES  
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
NONE.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD, LA HABANA, CIUDAD DE LA  
HABANA, MATANZAS, CIENFUEGOS, AND VILLA CLARA  
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH  
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE  
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS  
SYSTEM.  
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED  
STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE  
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE  
THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL  
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.  
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK  
------------------------------  
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN  
WAS LOCATED BY WEATHER RADARS FROM CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN NEAR  
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING  
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH (41 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN  
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS  
WEST-CENTRAL CUBA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACROSS THE STRAITS OF  
FLORIDA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT, AND ACROSS THE  
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE  
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).  
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
RAINFALL: THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING  
RAINFALL TOTALS:  
 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA, NORTHERN BAHAMAS:  
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES THROUGH  
SUNDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  
 
SOUTH FLORIDA, INCLUDING THE KEYS: 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED  
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS  
MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.  
 
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE  
WARNING AREA IN CUBA LATER TODAY AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS  
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER  
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND IN THE CENTRAL  
BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
TORNADOES: A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME  
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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