176  
WTNT43 KNHC 290841  
TCDAT3  
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017  
 
PHILIPPE IS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM, AND IT IS A STRETCH TO  
CALL IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE MOST TRACKABLE CENTER  
PASSED NEAR KEY WEST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO AND HAS MOVED INTO THE  
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GIVEN THAT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOW OBSERVED  
OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA, HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS IS A  
UNIQUE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE ADVISORY LOCATION  
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IS MORE OF A MEAN CENTER POSITION.  
GIVEN THAT, THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 070/15 KT.  
REGARDLESS OF ITS PRECISE LOCATION, THE OVERALL SYSTEM SHOULD TURN  
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE CONSIDERABLY  
AHEAD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE UNITED STATES EAST  
COAST.  
 
OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED  
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT OVER THE STRAITS  
OF FLORIDA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE  
NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER BY NEARLY 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER  
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE, AND PHILIPPE  
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH IS LIKELY TO INDUCE  
SOME BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY  
MONDAY, HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING  
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AND STRONGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR NEW  
ENGLAND.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH  
24H 30/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER PASCH  
 
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