089  
WTNT43 KNHC 291435  
TCDAT3  
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017  
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2017  
 
PHILIPPE LOOKS THE BEST IT EVER HAS, POSSESSING A WELL-DEFINED  
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES-16 VISIBLE  
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH AT LEAST 45-KT SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON SEVERAL  
RECENT SHIP REPORTS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED WITH THE BULK  
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAVING BEEN DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF  
THE CENTER DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF 45-75 KT.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK  
OVERNIGHT, THE CURRENT POSITION IS ACTUALLY ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
TRACK. PHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING DUE EAST AT ABOUT 25-27 KT FOR THE  
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT  
AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THIS  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A POWERFUL  
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ONLY 90-100  
NMI WEST OF PHILIPPE'S CENTER, AND MERGER WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH  
TRANSITION TO A EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 12  
HOURS, IF NOT SOONER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BECOMES MORE  
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW  
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER  
BANKS, PULLING PHILIPPE'S CIRCULATION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO  
NORTHWARD IN THE 12-24-HOUR PERIOD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S EAST  
COAST. ABSORPTION OF PHILIPPE'S CIRCULATION INTO THE LARGER  
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED BY 24 HOURS WHEN THE  
LARGER LOW IS LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK  
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, MAINLY DUE TO THE  
RECENT EASTWARD JOG, AND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE  
ENVELOPE NEAR A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE  
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, MAINLY DUE WEAK BAROCLINIC FORCING AND THE  
FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAT IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE  
BAROCLINIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LATITUDE  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST, TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL COASTAL LOW. IN  
FACT, SOME OF THE LATENT HEAT FROM PHILIPPE'S CIRCULATION WILL  
LIKELY GET DRAWN INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING TO ITS  
NORTHWEST, AIDING IN THAT INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND INCREASING THE  
DEMISE OF PHILIPPE AFTER 12 HOURS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 29/1500Z 27.8N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH  
12H 30/0000Z 32.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
24H 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW  
 

 
FORECASTER STEWART  
 
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