363  
AXNT20 KNHC 310002  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
802 PM EDT MON OCT 30 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2345 UTC.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO  
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO  
05N33W TO 01S48W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE ITCZ  
FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 30W-56W BEING SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE  
GULF WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER ALABAMA ADJACENT  
WATERS NEAR 28N87W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING VARIABLE GENTLE TO  
LIGHT WINDS BASIN-WIDE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W WHERE  
SSE WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS  
THE STATE OF TEXAS. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG  
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE  
NE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS TUESDAY  
LEAVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN  
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SE TEXAS  
TONIGHT, HOWEVER I WILL STALL BEFORE LIFTING BACK EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NW ATLC WATERS EXTENDS  
SSW TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN  
WATERS. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE SW  
N ATLC WATERS THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE  
WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR  
16N88W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH  
SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N80W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES  
FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 78W-84W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS  
FRONT ALONG WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE, A  
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTS ISOLATED  
SHOWERS IN THAT REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS WILL  
PREVAILS W OF THE FRONT TODAY AND WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS  
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES LEAVING A SHEAR LINE IN PLACE. MODERATE  
TRADES WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND  
SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE  
ISLAND SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION AS WELL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CEASE BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
FROM 30N66W EXTENDING S-SW TO 23N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A  
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO  
THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  
HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N65W TO  
19N67W SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER  
SIDE OF ITS AXIS. FARTHER EAST, BETWEEN 40W-60W A MIDDLE TO UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N46W WITH AN  
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO  
24N48W THEN STALLING TO 21N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE  
OCCURRING PRIMARILY E OF THE LOW AND FRONT FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN  
38W-54W. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE  
AZORES SW TO NEAR 23N.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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