399  
AXNT20 KNHC 311707  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
107 PM EDT TUE OCT 31 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1615 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO  
07N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 07N17W TO  
05N26W TO 04N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 04W...AND FROM  
01N-09N BETWEEN 10W-28W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS  
AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED E OF CUBA NEAR  
21N73W AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL  
CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND  
REMAINS ANALYZED AS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN  
GEORGIA. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED  
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS GENERALLY  
REMAINING W OF 94W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS IS  
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 94W. THE FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT  
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SURFACE  
RIDGING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ANCHORED ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN GULF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED E OF CUBA  
NEAR 22N74W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT  
ENVIRONMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THE  
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA WESTWARD  
ACROSS JAMAICA THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA  
TO 12N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE  
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NE NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...A  
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 67W AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO.  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.  
OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OCCURRING AND EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE  
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM  
20N70W TO NEAR JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH  
ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT ALONG 67W WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND  
AND MONA PASSAGE REGION.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W  
EXTENDING S-SW TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W AND  
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM  
THE FRONT NEAR 25N67W TO PUERTO RICO PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT  
AND SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 58W-  
65W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS  
FROM 36N42W SW TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N47W TO A BROAD BASE  
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 12N54W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1012 MB  
LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N46W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT  
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NE BEYOND 32N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO  
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE  
OCCURRING PRIMARILY NE OF THE LOW AND AND E OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH AXIS S OF 27N FROM 08N-36N BETWEEN 30W-52W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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