182  
AXNT20 KNHC 010001  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
801 PM EDT TUE OCT 31 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2345 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO  
08N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 08N15W TO  
06N34W TO 06N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 13W-37W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE  
GULF WHERE IT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E FLOW E  
OF 90W AND MODERATE TO FRESH ESE FLOW W OF 90W. LOCALLY STRONG SE  
WINDS ARE OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS ADJACENT WATERS AHEAD OF A  
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE TEXAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  
ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 94W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE  
BEING SUPPORTED BY SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR. THE CENTER OF HIGH  
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT ENE OVER NW ATLC WATERS BY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT AND THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE NW GULF. THE FRONT  
WILL CONTINUE TO STALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD  
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE  
MIDDLE LEVELS, DIFFLUENT FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS  
FROM 20N75W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 09N82W. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE  
W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE W BASIN AS THE  
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE NEXT  
TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES NORTHERN  
HISPANIOLA WHERE IT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS  
THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS  
FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO  
RICO. MODERATE TO FRESH N FLOW IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHILE LIGHT  
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, N WINDS WILL  
DECREASE TO MODERATE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES NORTHERN HISPANIOLA  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND  
ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 67W  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND MONA PASSAGE REGION THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N65W  
EXTENDING S-SW TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL  
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE PROVIDING FOCUS  
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 135 NM EITHER  
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST, A MIDDLE TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N46W  
WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NE  
BEYOND 31N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO  
24N52W TO 20N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM  
06N-23N BETWEEN 44W-53W BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT  
AND A SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE ITCZ ALONG 52W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page