347  
AXNT20 KNHC 021737  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
137 PM EDT THU NOV 2 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1430 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO  
08N18W, WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AND EXTENDS  
TO 08N31W, THEN CONTINUES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N37W TO  
04N50W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 03N34W. NUMEROUS  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 14W AND  
30W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE  
ENTIRE GULF BASIN TODAY. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT. EXPECT  
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE W ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE  
BASIN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO NEAR THE HONDURAN  
COAST AT 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  
ANOTHER TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA  
RICA FROM 14N83W TO 09N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION WAS NOTED S OF 13N W OF 81W. MOIST MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER  
CUBA SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA  
FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W. SURFACE RIDGING NORTH OF THE  
BASIN SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE E TO NE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN  
TODAY, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER  
THE LEE OF CUBA. A 1458 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS  
WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS THE NW CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE  
YUCATAN. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN WINDS DECREASING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE  
FRIDAY.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE TROUGH AND ENHANCED MID TO UPPER  
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH  
EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW TIP OF  
HAITI. THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM SANTO DOMINGO CONFIRMED A MOIST  
PROFILE TO ABOUT 690 MB WITH PRONOUNCED DRYING ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES WERE 1.67 INCHES. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS  
IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS, THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT, EXTEND OVER  
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO 26N70W, AND FROM 25N70W TO 19N71W  
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF  
THE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST, A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N54W  
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 22N57W. THIS LOW  
IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTEND DEEP INTO THE  
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN IS SUPPORTING  
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE  
CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N20W TO 29N26W TO  
31N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. OVER  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE W ATLANTIC TROUGHS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. THE  
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT SW AND WEAKEN. THE FRONT  
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
LATTO/COBB  
 
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