183  
AXNT20 KNHC 031018  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
618 AM EDT FRI NOV 3 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1015 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO  
08N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 08N21W TO  
07N30W TO 09N36W, THEN CONTINUES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 09N39W  
TO 08N50W TO 11N60W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 17W-31W, FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN  
30W-35W, AND FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN  
59W-62W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N83W. A  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE NE GULF OF  
MEXICO. 10-20 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH THE  
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER  
IS OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE  
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER  
LEVELS, ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SURFACE  
RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION  
IS S OF COZUMEL MEXICO FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 86W-88W. A LINE OF  
SURFACE CONFLUENCE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO NE NICARAGUA  
NEAR 14N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM  
OF THIS LINE. FURTHER S, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF  
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 13N83W TO 09N81W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE  
TROUGH. FURTHER E, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ADVECTED OVER THE  
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER  
LEVELS, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN  
AND THE S CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE E  
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH REACHES NW HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER  
THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W TO 25N72W TO  
NW HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE  
TROUGH. FURTHER E, A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO THE  
LOW CENTER TO 24N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE  
TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM  
21N55W TO 11N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS  
TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS  
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W. UPPER LEVEL  
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THIS LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 46W-52W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC TROUGH,  
AND THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TROUGH, TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT  
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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