366  
AXNT20 KNHC 040441  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1241 AM EDT SAT NOV 4 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0345 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO  
10N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
10N23W TO 05N30W TO 06N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE  
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N43W TO 14N39W. WIDELY  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 03W- 23W...  
AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 36W-42W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N86W  
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  
THROUGHOUT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS MODERATE TO  
OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN  
PORTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 29N75W TO  
13N77W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W...INCLUDING  
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO EAST OF THE  
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
OCCURRING PRIMARILY E OF 61W...AND S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO  
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...HOWEVER  
OVERALL THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N70W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR  
29N77W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED E OF THE  
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS ALONG 75W FROM  
24N TO 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING  
WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 67W-72W. OTHERWISE  
THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS EXPERIENCING RATHER TRANQUIL  
CONDITIONS AS DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 65W. ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 54W  
FROM A BASE NEAR 21N NORTHWARD TO 34N. THIS TROUGHING HAS INDUCED  
AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE BETWEEN 50W-62W FEATURING A 1010 MB LOW  
CENTERED NEAR 23N53W AND ANOTHER WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW CENTERED  
NEAR 33N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1010 MB LOW SW TO  
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY E OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH AXIS IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE  
FROM 19N-36N BETWEEN 45W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS  
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH  
CENTERED NEAR 47N34W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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