895  
AXNT20 KNHC 041056  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
656 AM EDT SAT NOV 4 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0915 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N17W TO  
07N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
07N22W TO 04N30W TO 06N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE  
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N44W TO 12N42W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 02W-22W...AND FROM  
05N-09N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE  
FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 35W-47W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W  
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  
THROUGHOUT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS MODERATE TO  
OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN  
PORTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W TO  
13N81W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 11N-20N BETWEEN 75W-84W. FARTHER  
EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO  
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N59W. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY SE OF A LINE FROM 17N62W TO 11N66W.  
OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...HOWEVER  
OVERALL THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES AT  
THE SURFACE.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N66W TO A BROAD BASE NEAR  
29N79W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED E OF THE  
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS ALONG 75W FROM  
THE LOW TO 31N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE  
OCCURRING WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 66W-72W.  
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS EXPERIENCING  
RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF  
65W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
EXTENDS ALONG 53W FROM A BASE NEAR 20N NORTHWARD TO 32N. THIS  
TROUGHING HAS INDUCED AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE BETWEEN 50W-62W  
FEATURING A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING S-SW TO EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N59W. ANOTHER  
SURFACE TROUGH LIES TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM 24N62W TO 32N54W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY E OF  
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER  
LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 19N-37N BETWEEN 44W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF  
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE  
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 45N30W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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