034  
AXPZ20 KNHC 041613  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC SAT NOV 4 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N100W  
1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N117W 1010 MB TO 09N124W. THE ITCZ  
EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO 11N134W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN  
89W AND 103W, AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF  
136W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR  
30N120W THROUGH LATE SUN, THEN BECOME REINFORCED BY HIGH  
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA BUILDING SSE AND ALONG THE  
OUTER WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUE. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE  
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW, AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE EPAC WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENISULA THROUGH SUN, WITH MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING FRESHENING NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 60  
NM OF THE COAST ON SUN EVENING, WITH THESE FRESH CONDITIONS  
PERSISTING THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL INCREASE 4 TO 6 FT MON THROUGH  
TUE.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF  
26N THIS MORNING WILL FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH  
TUE AS A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH  
OFFSHORE PREVAILS. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL BUILD  
FROM 2 TO 4 FT THIS MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT BY MON. LIGHT VARIABLE  
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
GULF THROUGH MON AS LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE HEATING OF THE DAY  
DRIVE THE LOCAL WINDS.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE  
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND WILL RESULT IN  
STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH TUE MORNING, AND  
PULSING TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE EACH EARLY MORNING. MODEL  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE  
REGION WED NIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF  
MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE DRAINAGE WINDS WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE  
OCCURRING ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS  
MORNING, WITH MODERATE FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING FRESH DRAINAGE FLOW WILL BEGIN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT.  
 
LIGHT NW-N WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE N OF  
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY  
WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTO TONIGHT.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A DISTINCT INCREASING IN NE  
WINDS SPREADING SSW BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW WATERS.  
THE FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 28N140W AND IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE TO 30N133W TO 29.5N135W TO 25N140W AND BECOME STATIONARY  
SUN MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC BEHIND  
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE  
FRONT WHERE SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE. A NE TO SW ALIGNED  
TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES ABOUT 200 NM TO THE SE OF THE FRONT AND  
WILL DRIFT SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON MORNING WHEN LOW  
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N END OF THE TROUGH  
NEAR 29.5N127W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AT  
THAT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS  
THE NW WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE, WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 8 TO 12  
FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL.  
 
MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE  
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO ABOUT 22N-23N THROUGH MON WITH SEAS  
REMAINING 5-7 FT.  
 

 
STRIPLING  
 
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