105  
AXNT20 KNHC 041755  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
155 PM EDT SAT NOV 4 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO  
06N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
06N21W TO 05N40W TO 07N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE  
ITCZ AXIS FROM 15N44W TO 06N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 02W-24W, FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 30W-41W AND  
FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 46W-53W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N88W  
PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE NE  
FLOW E OF 90W AND SSE FLOW ELSEWHERE. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE  
IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN IT WILL DISSIPATE  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO COME OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH W OF JAMAICA  
CONTINUING TO NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS.  
THE TROUGH LIES UNDERNEATH OF A DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THE BASE OF  
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER HONDURAS AND SW TO W UPPER FLOW COVERING THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH  
SHALLOW MOISTURE, AS SEEN IN CIRA LPW IMAGERY, SUPPORT SCATTERED  
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-83W. VERY DRY AIR IS  
SUBSIDING ELSEWHERE, THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED  
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD  
ISLANDS. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PATCHES OF  
SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.  
HOWEVER, DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL HINDER THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MIDDLE TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE W, THUS  
SUPPORTING LIFTING OF WARM MOIST AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR  
25N74W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE LOW TO  
23N75W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC, A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1014 MB LOWS; ONE NEAR  
25N58W AND THE SECOND NEAR 25N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY E OF THE LOWS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN  
44W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE  
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE  
AZORES.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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