563  
AXPZ20 KNHC 042150  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC SAT NOV 04 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0215 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W BETWEEN 09N AND 10N FROM THE  
CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF  
COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 13N117W TO 09N124W WHERE SCATTEROMETER  
DATA INDICATES THAT AN ITCZ FORMS AND EXTENDS W-NW TO BEYOND  
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO  
09N90W TO 09N112W, AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINES FROM  
08N122W TO 09N128W AND FROM 11N136W TO 10N140W.  
 
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27.5N121W TO 21N128W WITH SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER NEAR 30N120W THROUGH EARLY SUN, THEN  
SHIFT N OF THE AREA LEAVING A N TO S ORIENTATED RIDGE MEANDERING  
FROM 30N120W TO 17N110W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GENTLE  
TO LOCALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENISULA THROUGH  
SUN, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW  
FLOW BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY  
DRAINAGE FLOW, WITH SEAS TO 10 FT, IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY  
MON, THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRIEFLY ON MON  
AFTERNOON. STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL RESUME ON MON EVENING, WITH  
STRONG NORTHERLY PULSES CONTINUING THROUGH WED. NEAR GALE  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT AND THU, INCREASING TO  
MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THU EVENING WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 12  
FT.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS  
WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 29N ON SUN, AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG NW WINDS  
FORECAST FROM 25N TO 27N ON WED.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: MODERATE TO FRESH NE DRAINAGE WINDS, WITH 4  
TO 6 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING  
ON MON NIGHT.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST  
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N130W TO 24N140W. STRONG NE  
WINDS, WITH 8 TO 13 FT SEAS, ARE OBSERVED W OF A LINE FROM  
32N133W TO 27N140W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ON SUN. A SURFACE  
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 27N131W ON SUN NIGHT WITH  
STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN  
ABOUT 180 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL  
DRIFT S ON TUE WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND WINDS  
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.  
 
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL  
ARRIVE ALONG 32N W OF 135W ON TUE NIGHT, WITH THE EASTERN EDGE  
OF THESE CONDITIONS REACHING A POSITION FROM 32N120W TO 21N140W  
ON THU NIGHT.  
 

 
NELSON  
 
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