595  
AXNT20 KNHC 042346  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
746 PM EDT SAT NOV 4 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2330 UTC.  
   
.ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO  
06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO  
05N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM  
15N46W TO 07N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ  
BETWEEN 20W-43W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N88W  
PREVAILS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE  
ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS  
FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN IT WILL DISSIPATE  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO COME OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF JAMAICA  
AND EXTENDING TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH AND BETWEEN 78W-85W.  
DRY/STABLE AIR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE, THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.  
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE  
WINDWARD ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE PREVAILING AND EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
MOVE OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST, THUS SUPPORTING LIFTING OF  
WARM MOIST AIR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC EAST OF  
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO  
31N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH/LOW. TO THE  
EAST, ANOTHER 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N52W. A  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO THE LOW TO 23N53W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BETWEEN 46W-54W. SURFACE RIDGING  
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
ERA  
 
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