931  
AXNT20 KNHC 050444  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1244 AM EDT SUN NOV 5 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0415 UTC.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO  
05N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
05N25W TO 06N38W TO 07N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE  
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N46W TO 17N46W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 09W-15W. WIDELY  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 20W-  
43W...AND FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 43W-52W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N87W  
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  
THROUGHOUT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY  
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE  
TO OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS  
WESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA INTO A 1010 MB  
LOW NEAR 18N84W TO 21N82W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN  
77W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN  
COLOMBIA ALONG 11N/12N TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-86W.  
FARTHER EAST...SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY E  
OF 70W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...AND ACROSS  
MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE  
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...HOWEVER  
OVERALL THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENTLE TO  
MODERATE TRADES AT THE SURFACE.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N75W TO 23N81W TO A BASE OVER  
GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW  
CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W AND A SURFACE TROUGH  
EXTENDING N-NW TO 31N78W AND S-SE TO 23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM  
22N-30N BETWEEN 70W-78W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N54W TO 21N46W. THIS TROUGHING  
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N51W WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 25N-33N  
BETWEEN 46W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED  
N-NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 44N23W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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