866  
AXPZ20 KNHC 051606  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1605 UTC SUN NOV 5 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N76W 1011 MB  
TO 09N86W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N119W 1011 MB TO 10.5N140W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 108W TO  
COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W  
AND 138W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES NEAR 30N120W THIS MORNING,  
AND WILL COLLAPSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT BECOME REINFORCED BY A NNW  
TO SSE ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDING WEAKLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE  
NE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN MEANDER FROM NEAR 32N120W TO  
18N112W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND  
FLOW, AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS W  
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TODAY, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTING  
THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY, SUPPORTING  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 26N THIS MORNING AND ARE  
EXPECTED TO SPREAD N ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 28N BY AFTERNOON,  
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE  
GULF OF FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FROM 25N  
TO 28N, WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING 5 TO 7 FT.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: STRONG TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE NORTHERLY  
DRAINAGE FLOW, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT, IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
EARLY MON, THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BRIEFLY ON MON  
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A FRESH N WINDS. STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL  
RESUME ON MON EVENING, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY NOCTURNAL PULSES  
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ON WED NIGHT AND THU, FURTHER INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE  
ON THU EVENING, WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 12 FT.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT  
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY.  
THEN MODERATE TO FRESH NE DRAINAGE WINDS, WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS,  
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW  
NIGHTS.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND 3 TO 4 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST  
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW  
WATERS AND DEGENERATED TO A SHEARLINE, EXTENDING FROM NEAR  
30N134W TO BEYOND 25N140W, WHILE A DEEPER LAYERED TROUGH  
PERSISTS TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE, FROM 29N132W TO 22N138W.  
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER  
WATERS NW OF THE SHEARLINE, WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT. STRONG  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE SHEARLINE IS PRODUCING A STRONG  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NW OF THE SHEARLINE, BUT WILL GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS  
ALONG THE N END OF THE TROUGH AND DRIFTS NE. THE RESULT OF THIS  
WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA,  
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT  
BY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY WED, REACHING  
FROM 30N129W TO 27N138W BY THU EVENING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY  
FORECAST TO REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS WITH THE FRONTAL INTRUSION,  
HOWEVER, LARGE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 13 FT WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS NEW  
BOUNDARY.  
 

 
STRIPLING  
 
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