001  
AXNT20 KNHC 051741 CCA  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1129 AM EST SUN NOV 5 2017  
 
CORRECTED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 45W AND 55W  
SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N51W AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT  
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N50W. THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 695 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA WHERE  
IT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PRIMARILY  
N OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE  
THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. CONDITIONS ARE  
FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY WHEN  
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH  
ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE  
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO  
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
10N20W TO 06N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM  
01N-09N E OF 45W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N86W  
CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE BASIN AND PROVIDES FOR LIGHT TO  
GENTLE NE TO E FLOW E OF 90W, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS IN THE  
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LATEST SCATTEROMETER  
DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE SSE WINDS W OF 90W. THE RIDGE IS  
FORECAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NNE GULF WATERS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE  
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH  
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1013 MB LOW LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST  
OF E HONDURAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS UNDERNEATH A  
REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, WHICH ALONG WITH  
SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF  
JAMAICA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 78W-82W AND WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE  
COAST OF E HONDURAS, NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THE EPAC MONSOON  
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO A 1011 MB LOW OFF  
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W AND GENERATE SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. MIDDLE  
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A SMALL RIDGE N OF PUERTO RICO AND  
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. PATCHES OF  
SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA, THUS  
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO  
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN  
THE NW BASIN. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PATCHES OF  
SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS.  
HOWEVER, DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND STRONG SHEAR WILL HINDER THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A MIDDLE TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE W,  
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED  
IN THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ATLC FORECAST WATERS. SEE THE SPECIAL  
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL BASE OVER NORTHERN  
CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED E OF  
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM  
31N74W TO THE LOW TO 24N74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC  
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB  
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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