658  
AXPZ20 KNHC 052148  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC SUN NOV 05 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2145 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW  
COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 11N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA  
AT 09N83W, THEN WIGGLES W TO 10N106W, THEN TURNS NW THROUGH AN  
EMBEDDED 1012 MB SURFACE LOW AT 12N122W, THEN SW TO 09N128W TO  
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 07N92W WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A  
LINE FROM 12N98W TO 09N102W TO 08N116W, WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N125W  
AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N131W TO 10N137W.  
 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 18.5N118W.  
 
A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N125W TO 21N129W WITH SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED N OF 27N WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH  
AXIS.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A N TO S ORIENTATED RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 32N122W TO  
14.5N105W THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY W DURING MID WEEK.  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS,  
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENISULA  
THROUGH EARLY WED, WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5 TO  
8 FT BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW, WITH SEAS  
TO 9 FT, FORECAST THROUGH EARLY MON, THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL RELAX BRIEFLY ON MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A FRESH N BREEZE.  
STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL RESUME ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE  
MORNING WHEN THE GRADIENTS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AGAIN. STRONG  
NORTHERLY PULSES WILL RESUME ON TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
WED INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON WED NIGHT AND THU, FURTHER  
INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THU EVENING THROUGH FRI  
MORNING, WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 12 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF  
NEAR 14N95.5W.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW FORECAST  
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHEN THE  
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH OF  
STRONG NW WINDS FORECAST FROM 25N TO 27N ON WED.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: MODERATE TO FRESH NE DRAINAGE WINDS, WITH 4  
TO 6 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING  
ON MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING  
TO 7 FT DOWNSTREAM NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHILE MODERATE TO  
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST  
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS BETWEEN A  
RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF THE BAJA  
PENINSULA AND A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS THE WATERS W OF  
135W. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR 27N131W,  
AND MOVE N STALLING NEAR 30N126W ON MON AND TUE BEFORE  
DISSIPATING. STRONG NE WINDS, WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS, ARE OBSERVED  
W OF A LINE FROM 32N132W TO 26N140W. THESE STRONG CONDITIONS  
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE EARLY  
MON, THEN DIMINISH MON AFTERNOON, WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING  
TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON NIGHT.  
 
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS WILL  
ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N W OF 135W ON TUE NIGHT. THE  
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N127W TO 27N138W ON WED NIGHT, AND  
GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON THU. THE ASSOCIATED LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL,  
IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS, WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE WATERS  
N OF 15N W OF 115W LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
NELSON  
 
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