571  
AXNT20 KNHC 052319  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
619 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2315 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 45W AND 55W  
SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N52W. THE WELL-DEFINED LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS  
WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME  
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY WHEN THE LOW WILL BE  
MOVING OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM  
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE  
NEXT 48 HOURS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO  
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO  
07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM ON  
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 50W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH  
CENTERED NEAR 30N88W. THIS SYSTEM COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN.  
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A  
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA  
COAST.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE BASIN CONTINUE TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT  
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N78W TO 16N84W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED BETWEEN 78W-85W. TO THE SOUTH, THE  
EPAC'S MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 75W-82W SUPPORTING  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS THIS AREA. MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENT  
FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO AND THE  
LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE  
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 48  
HOURS, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE  
SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE WESTERN  
PORTION OF THE BASIN, A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR  
27N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N75W. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF  
THE LOW/TROUGH, A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS  
BETWEEN 66W-77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH  
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
 
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