544  
AXPZ20 KNHC 060314  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC MON NOV 06 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0330 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW  
COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 11N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA  
AT 10N86W, THEN TURNS SW TO 08N95W, THEN TURNS NW 11.5N112W,  
THEN SW TO 09N120W CONTINUING W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER AT 10N127W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF 10N126W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN  
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N91W TO 08N97W TO 09N120W,  
WITHIN 90 NM OF 11N139W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 15N115W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A N TO S ORIENTATED RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 32N122W TO NEAR  
14.5N105W THROUGH TUE, THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY W DURING MID WEEK.  
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
THE EPAC WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENISULA THROUGH TUE NIGHT, THEN  
THE N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE THROUGH THU NIGHT  
WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT STRONG NW FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA  
PENINSULA ON FRI. BY THEN, LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE  
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT W OF  
BAJA.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: PULSES OF STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW,  
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 9 FT, ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED  
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX BRIEFLY DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS SUPPORTING MOSTLY A FRESH N BREEZE. THESE NORTHERLY  
GAPS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON WED  
NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THU EVENING  
THROUGH FRI MORNING, WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 12 FT DOWNSTREAM  
OF THE GULF NEAR 14N95.5W.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW IS  
FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHEN  
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH  
OF STRONG NW WINDS FORECAST FROM 25N TO 27N ON WED.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: MODERATE TO FRESH NE DRAINAGE WINDS ARE  
FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING ON MON NIGHT AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT  
DOWNSTREAM NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF 09N, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST S OF 09N  
THIS WEEK.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS BETWEEN A  
RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS W OF THE BAJA  
PENINSULA AND A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS THE WATERS W OF  
135W. A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR 27N134W, AND IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE NE STALLING NEAR 30N126W ON MON AND TUE BEFORE  
DISSIPATING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED  
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N128W TO 27N135W.  
STRONG NE WINDS, WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS, ARE OBSERVED W OF A LINE  
FROM 32N132W TO 26N140W. THESE STRONG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE EARLY MON, THEN  
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON AFTERNOON, WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS  
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON NIGHT.  
 
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS,  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N W OF 135W ON  
TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N127W TO 27N138W ON WED  
NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON THU. THE ASSOCIATED LONG-PERIOD  
NW SWELL, IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS, WILL SPREAD E ACROSS  
THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
NELSON  
 
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