884  
AXNT20 KNHC 060452  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1152 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0415 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR  
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 30N50W AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW  
CENTERED NEAR 29N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM  
27N-30N BETWEEN 48W-51W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION  
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N-35N BETWEEN 44W-51W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND MERGE WITH A WEAKENING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG 35N. UNTIL THEN...CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE  
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH  
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO  
11N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
11N20W TO 06N27W TO 07N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM  
02N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 08W...AND FROM 04N-11N  
BETWEEN 10W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N  
BETWEEN 21W-46W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N86W  
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT...WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY  
RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND  
LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N83W TO 21N82W AND CONTINUES TO  
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 13N-  
17N BETWEEN 82W-87W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A MIDDLE TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO A  
BASE OVER NE HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL  
DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 72W-80W. FARTHER EAST...SHALLOW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY E OF 72W...INCLUDING  
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...  
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING...AS A  
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE E OVER THE WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER  
THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GENTLE TO MODERATE  
TRADES PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH  
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 23N79W TO A BASE OVER CENTRAL  
AMERICA NEAR 16N85W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH  
ANALYZED FROM 23N78W TO 30N75W. MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL  
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 20N-27N  
BETWEEN 66W-76W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE SPECIAL FEATURES  
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT  
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC  
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB  
HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N16W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW  
TO 26N40W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
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