625  
AXNT20 KNHC 061100  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
547 AM EST MON NOV 6 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1015 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.9N 50.2W AT  
06/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 780 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1275 NM WSW OF  
THE AZORES MOVING E AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  
IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  
40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N- 30N BETWEEN  
48W- 51W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO  
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO  
09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
09N20W TO 04N36W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM  
01N-07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND FROM 04N-12N  
BETWEEN 10W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N  
BETWEEN 21W-45W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W  
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. LATEST  
SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT...WITH OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS  
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHERLY  
RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AS THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND  
LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER  
CENTRAL CUBA TO A BASE OVER NE HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W IS SUPPORTING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM  
15N-21N BETWEEN 73W-80W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE  
OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-82W WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT. FARTHER EAST...SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING  
PRIMARILY E OF 72W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND  
SEVERAL OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE  
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...AS A  
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE W OVER THE WESTERN  
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING IS GENERATING AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER  
THE REGION WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERATING WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF  
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 66W-76W. GENTLE  
TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH  
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO A BASE OVER  
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N85W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE  
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N80W TO 30N76W.  
MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
TROUGHING ALOFT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 63W-75W. ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A  
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N35W TO 22N43W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
HUFFMAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page