368  
WTNT44 KNHC 061433  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
1100 AM AST MON NOV 06 2017  
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS A SHEARED APPEARANCE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER  
EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE  
BANDS. A VERY RECENT ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS  
ARE NEAR 30 KT, WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK  
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL WIND  
SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT.  
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED TO THE LEFT, WITH THE  
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 015/3 KT. A FASTER NORTH TO  
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS  
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE. THEREAFTER, AN EVEN FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS  
FORECAST WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE  
WESTERLIES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC  
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME  
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO  
BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM,  
BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS AND THE EXPECTED FASTER FORWARD SPEED  
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD  
MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CAUSING EXTRATROPICAL  
TRANSITION. THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A  
LITTLE HIGHER THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS  
THAT TREND AND LIES NEAR THE IVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS MODELS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 06/1500Z 29.5N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 07/0000Z 30.8N 50.2W 35 KT 40 MPH  
24H 07/1200Z 33.6N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH  
48H 08/1200Z 41.4N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH  
72H 09/1200Z 51.0N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
96H 10/1200Z 57.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
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