612  
AXNT20 KNHC 061755  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1255 PM EST MON NOV 6 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 50.4W AT  
06/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 758 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1268 NM WSW OF  
THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  
IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  
40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 46W-  
51W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO  
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
09N19W TO 08N30W TO 06N45W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N E OF 44W AND FROM 01N-11N BETWEEN  
48W-63W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS IN THE SE CONUS EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE  
GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  
LIGHT TO GENTLE NE TO E FLOW E OF 90W AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE  
WINDS W OF 90W, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFF THE COAST OF  
TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NNE  
GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. FRESH TO  
STRONG NNE WINDS WILL LIE WEST OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO  
MOVE ESE ACROSS THE GULF AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC  
EXTENDS SSW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE  
ALOFT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT  
THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE AND SOUTHWARD TO 16N, INCLUDING JAMAICA ESE ADJACENT  
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS E CUBA, JAMAICA,  
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN  
THIS REGION THROUGH THU MORNING AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH  
EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NW COLOMBIA AND SUPPORT  
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES  
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N  
ATLC TO PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. A RIDGE ALOFT TO THE E OF  
THE TROUGH GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ISOLATED  
SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THU MORNING AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL  
BEFORE DISSIPATING.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
NINETEEN. OTHERWISE, IN THE SW N ATLC, A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL  
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING SSW TO A BASE OVER THE SW  
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM  
28N73W TO 20N75W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH  
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN  
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029  
MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
RAMOS  
 
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