347  
WTNT44 KNHC 062031  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
500 PM AST MON NOV 06 2017  
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST  
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF  
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY  
SHEAR AND DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON  
THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 2.0/30 KT FROM  
TAFB.  
 
SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND  
ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE  
WOBBLES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/5 KT. THE COMBINED  
INFLUENCES OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE  
PROGRESSIVELY FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME, AN EVEN FASTER NORTHEASTWARD  
MOTION IS EXPECTED WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-  
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOTABLY SLOWER  
THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLES, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN  
ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  
 
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE  
WESTERLY SHEAR WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS. ALTHOUGH THESE  
CONDITIONS TYPICALLY WOULD NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING, THE MODELS DO  
SHOW THE DEPRESSION DEEPENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LIKELY  
DUE TO SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD  
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL  
TRANSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY WHEN IT MERGES WITH A  
COLD FRONT. OVERALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS  
CYCLE, AND NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY  
PREDICTION.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 06/2100Z 29.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 07/0600Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH  
24H 07/1800Z 34.2N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH  
36H 08/0600Z 37.6N 48.4W 45 KT 50 MPH  
48H 08/1800Z 41.1N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH  
72H 09/1800Z 48.8N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
96H 10/1800Z 56.0N 14.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI  
 
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