906  
AXPZ20 KNHC 062149  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC MON NOV 06 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2145 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW  
COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 11N75W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA  
AT 09N84W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1012 MB SURFACE LOW AT 09.5N111W,  
THEN TURNS NW TO 12N132W, THEN SW TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OVER THE S  
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS  
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N79W TO 08N99W  
TO 08N105W, AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N122W  
TO 13N131W TO 10N140W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A N TO S ORIENTATED RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE 250  
NM SEAWARD AND W OF 110W THROUGH THU, THEN SHIFT TO A POSITION  
FROM 22N116W TO 20N107W LATE IN THE WEEK. MODERATE NORTHERLY  
FLOW, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS W OF  
THE BAJA PENISULA WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE LATE TONIGHT  
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
THAT STRONG NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA  
PENINSULA ON FRI. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE  
REACHING THE AREA ON THU, BUT THE ASSOCIATED LONG-PERIOD NW  
SWELL,IN THE FORM OF 6 TO 9 FT SEAS, WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE  
WATERS N OF 26N W OF BAJA EARLY FRI, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT  
EVERYWHERE W OF BAJA ON SAT.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: PULSES OF STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW,  
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 9 FT, ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED  
EVENING. THESE NORTHERLY GAPS WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON WED NIGHT, FURTHER INCREASE TO  
MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THU EVENING, AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE  
ON FRI, WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 15 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF  
NEAR 14.5N95.5W ON THU NIGHT.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW IS  
FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHEN  
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH  
OF STRONG NW WINDS FROM 25N TO 27N ON WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL RELAX WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ONLY S OF 26N BY LATE THU.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE DRAINAGE WINDS  
ARE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH  
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT DOWNSTREAM NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF 09N, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST S OF 09N THIS  
WEEK.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 31N127W WITH A  
STALLED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 25N140W. STRONG NE WINDS  
CURRENTLY WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT  
WITH LOW GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ON TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SEAS  
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON MON NIGHT.  
 
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS,  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N W OF 135W ON  
TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N126W TO 28N140W ON WED  
NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON THU. THE ASSOCIATED LONG-PERIOD  
NW SWELL, IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS, WILL SPREAD E ACROSS  
THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W LATE IN THE WEEK AND BEGIN TO  
SUBSIDE LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
NELSON  
 
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