705  
AXNT20 KNHC 070001  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
701 PM EST MON NOV 6 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2315 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 29.9N 50.0W AT  
06/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 773 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1238 NM WSW OF  
THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  
IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  
40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 47W-  
50W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N15W TO  
09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
09N20W TO 06N40W TO 06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 18W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 16W-40W, AND  
FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 40W-59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
IS ALSO NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 59W-65W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 2100 UTC, A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL  
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING  
AROUND THE HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER  
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W. STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE  
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WED EVENING WITH CONVECTION.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AS OF 2100 UTC, A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM  
20N82W TO N NICARAGUA NEAR 14N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90  
NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER S, THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE E PACIFIC  
MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 09N BETWEEN COSTA  
RICA AND N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND  
PANAMA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE  
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE  
NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. UPPER  
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRODUCING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO, AND  
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN, AND  
THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.  
IN ADDITION UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE  
NEXT 48 HOURS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
NINETEEN. OTHERWISE, IN THE W ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS  
FROM 26N74W TO THE S BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A  
1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N58W. OF NOTE IN  
THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC  
WITH AXIS FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. UPPER LEVEL  
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE  
CONVECTION FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 21N43W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 44W-47W.  
EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REMAIN QUASI-  
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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