166  
AXPZ20 KNHC 070325  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
2205 UTC MON NOV 06 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0315 UTC.  
 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 09N FROM  
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N76W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA  
RICA AT 09N84W TO 10N90W TO 08N99W THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB  
SURFACE LOW AT 10N110W TO 09N116W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 330 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT  
OF THE LOW AT 10N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS  
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 10N90W  
TO 09N100W TO 08N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 122W AND 140W  
ASSOCIATED WITHN A TROUGH FROM 16N133W TO 11N139W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A N TO S ORIENTATED RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE 250  
NM SEAWARD AND TO THE W OF 110W THROUGH THU, THEN REORIENTATE TO  
A POSITION FROM 22N116W TO 14N103W LATE IN THE WEEK. MODERATE  
NORTHERLY FLOW, AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EPAC  
WATERS W OF THE BAJA PENISULA WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE  
LATE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN THROUGH THU NIGHT.  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT STRONG NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BRIEFLY ON FRI. A COLD FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA ON FRI, BUT THE  
ASSOCIATED LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL,IN THE FORM OF 6 TO 9 FT SEAS,  
WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N W OF BAJA EARLY FRI, WITH  
SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT EVERYWHERE W OF BAJA ON SAT.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: PULSES OF STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW,  
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 9 FT, ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY  
THU. THESE NORTHERLY GAPS WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO  
NEAR GALE FORCE ON THU MORNING, FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE  
FORCE ON THU EVENING, AND CONTINUE AT GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE  
ON FRI, WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING TO 15 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF  
NEAR 14.5N95.5W ON THU NIGHT.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW IS  
FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHEN  
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH  
OF STRONG NW WINDS FROM 25N TO 27N ON WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL RELAX WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ONLY TO THE S OF 26N BY LATE  
THU.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N-NE DRAINAGE WINDS  
ARE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH  
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT DOWNSTREAM NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF 09N, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST S OF 09N THIS  
WEEK.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 31N128W WITH A  
STALLED AND WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 25N140W. STRONG NE  
WINDS CURRENTLY WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW  
WILL SOON DIMINISH WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH  
TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS,  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT, WILL ARRIVE ALONG 32N W OF 135W ON  
TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N126W TO 28N140W ON WED  
NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT ON THU NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED LONG-  
PERIOD NW SWELL, IN THE FORM OF 8 TO 10 FT SEAS, WILL SPREAD E  
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W LATE IN THE WEEK AND BEGIN  
TO SUBSIDE LATE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
NELSON  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page