194  
AXNT20 KNHC 070556  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1256 AM EST TUE NOV 7 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0500 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 49.9W  
AT 07/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 770 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1220 NM WSW  
OF THE AZORES MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL  
PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH  
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM  
30N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SEE THE LATEST NHC  
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA BISSAU ON THE AFRICAN  
COAST NEAR 12N15W TO 10N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE  
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N18W TO 08N27W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF  
SOUTH AMERICA AT 06N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM  
18N17W TO 05N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED  
FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST SE OF THE  
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 28.5N88.5W. THE HIGH IS MAINTAINING  
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC  
WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE GULF, WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT  
MODERATE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SSE HAS SET UP N OF 21N AND W OF 95W  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER  
CENTRAL TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES  
THE GULF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE  
GULF. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SE FROM THE  
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WED EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING  
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NE HONDURAS  
NEAR 15N84W TO S OF CUBA NEAR 19N82W. THIS TROUGH HAS NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER S, THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS  
OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG THE COAST  
OF PANAMA TO NW COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE CONFINED TO LAND OVER PANAMA. LOW  
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLC IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW  
OVER THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NE OVER THE NW  
CARIBBEAN FROM NE HONDURAS TO NE CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF  
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO,  
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MONSOON TROUGH  
REMAINS IN PLACE. CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT  
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SLOWLY  
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL  
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO AIDING CONVECTION OVER  
THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
HISPANIOLA SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND  
THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES EASTWARD  
SLOWLY AND WEAKENS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON NEWLY  
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM RINA. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS  
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W TO N  
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND MAINLY N OF PUERTO RICO AND  
HISPANIOLA IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY 19N64W TO 20N73W TO 23N71W TO  
19N64W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM  
31N42W TO 17N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TAKING PLACE  
FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. OTHERWISE, A 1037 MB HIGH  
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N34W IS MAINTAINING FAIR  
WEATHER OVER THE BASIN E OF 60W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
MCELROY  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page