856  
AXNT20 KNHC 071114  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
614 AM EST TUE NOV 7 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1100 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 49.9W AT 07/0900 UTC  
OR ABOUT 765 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1190 NM WSW OF THE AZORES  
MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 31N TO 34N  
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER  
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL ON THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR  
13N17W TO 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS  
CONTINUES FROM 09N19W TO 07N31W TO 04N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH  
AMERICA AT 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM  
09N16W TO 05N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29.5N85.5W. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN  
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE  
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE GULF, WITH THE  
EXCEPTION THAT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW FROM THE  
SSE HAS SET UP N OF 21N AND W OF 95W AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGE CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO TO NEAR TAMPA  
FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE  
ENTIRE GULF. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THE TEXAS  
AND LOUISIANA COASTS WED EVENING, THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH THU  
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W.  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE CONFINED TO  
SOUTH OF 10N AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N  
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ARE MAINTAINING LIGHT TO  
MODERATE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OVER THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
EXTENDS NE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM NE NICARAGUA TO NE CUBA.  
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE HISPANIOLA,  
PUERTO RICO, AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W  
AND 71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER THE WINDWARD  
PASSAGE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS  
AS THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. CONVECTION OVER THE  
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SLOWLY  
PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 18N73W TO JUST E OF THE  
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74.5W. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO  
AIDING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE DOMINICAN  
REPUBLIC SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY  
AND WEAKENS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL  
STORM RINA. OTHERWISE, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN  
ATLC FROM HAITI NEAR 18N73W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR  
26N74.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FOUND MAINLY N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N  
TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 71W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE  
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W TO 23N41W TO 15N46W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS TAKING PLACE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W  
AND 48W. OTHERWISE, A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL  
ATLANTIC NEAR 44N33W IS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BASIN E  
OF 60W.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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