697  
WTNT44 KNHC 071446  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 07 2017  
 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR AND ON THE NORTHEASTERN  
SIDE OF RINA. HOWEVER, THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS  
MORE ORGANIZED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO, SATELLITE ESTIMATES CONTINUE  
TO SUPPORT A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT FOR THIS  
ADVISORY.  
 
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY  
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH MODERATE  
SHEAR AND COOL UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFFSETTING MARGINAL SSTS.  
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, RINA SHOULD INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND  
BECOME POST-TROPICAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON  
THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY  
FORECAST, WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS.  
 
RINA IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO  
ACCELERATE TODAY AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES MORE  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. RINA SHOULD MOVE RATHER  
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK OVER THE FAR NORTHERN  
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ONLY  
SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, AND THE NEW NHC  
PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE LAST ONE AT LONG RANGE. THE  
STORM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 4 WELL WEST OF IRELAND.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 07/1500Z 32.4N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH  
12H 08/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH  
24H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH  
36H 09/0000Z 41.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH  
48H 09/1200Z 45.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 10/1200Z 56.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
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