682  
AXPZ20 KNHC 071511  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
1336 UTC TUE NOV 7 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS  
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND  
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1500 UTC.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11N90W TO 09N100W  
TO 11N110W TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N115W TO 1011 LOW  
PRESSURE NEAR 12N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 86W AND 104W, AND FROM 14N  
TO 17N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG  
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  
 
A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE  
WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE A TROUGH WILL MEANDER BETWEEN  
THE WESTERN COAST OF NW MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG  
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A COLD  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA ON FRI, BUT  
THE ASSOCIATED LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7 TO 10 FT  
SEAS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 23N W OF BAJA LATE FRI.  
 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: PULSES OF STRONG NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW,  
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 8 TO 9 FT, ARE FORECAST THROUGH  
EARLY THU. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ON THU MORNING, AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON  
THU EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH  
EARLY FRI MORNING, WITH SEAS THEN BUILDING UP TO 14 OR 15 FT  
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF NEAR 14N95.5W ON THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL  
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRI,  
BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO  
EARLY SAT.  
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA: A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MODERATE  
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE  
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE RESULTING IN A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH TO  
STRONG NW WINDS FROM 25N TO 28N ON WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL RELAX WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ONLY TO THE S OF 26N BY LATE  
THU. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS  
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND  
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO: PULSING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE  
WINDS ARE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI NIGHT,  
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 OR 7 FT DOWNSTREAM NEAR 11N87W.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE TO THE N OF 09N, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE FORECAST S OF 09N  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  
 
A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 30.5N127W, WITH A COLD FRONT  
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N124W TO 26N125W TO 24N130W.  
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE  
DISCUSSION AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE WED. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE  
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IS NOTED W OF THE FRONT FRONT 24N TO 26N  
W OF 136W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W EARLY WED AFTERNOON  
FOLLOWED BY A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE FRONT WILL  
EXTEND FROM 30N134W TO 29N140W BY WED NIGHT, AND FROM 30N130W TO  
26N140W BY THU NIGHT WHILE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. THE ASSOCIATED  
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT SEAS WILL PROPAGATE  
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS WHILE DECAYING. SEAS OF 8  
FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W BY LATE  
FRIDAY, THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO NEAR 8 FT DURING THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
 
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR  
10N115W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW  
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD  
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
GR  
 
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