258  
AXNT20 KNHC 071803  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
103 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
1745 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 49.3W AT 07/1500 UTC  
OR ABOUT 785 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1140 NM W OF THE AZORES  
MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF THE STORM CENTER FROM  
33N TO 38N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. SEE THE LATEST NHC  
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC  
FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL, AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO  
08N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM  
08N25W TO 06N40W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM  
04N TO 10N E OF 32W AND FROM 03N TO 09N W OF 44W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF  
ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI NEAR 28N88W, WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT  
TO GENTLE NE TO E FLOW E OF 90W AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SSE WINDS W  
OF 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE BASIN ALONG WITH  
VERY DRY AIR, WHICH SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES. THE CENTER OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING  
WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE  
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. FRESH TO STRONG NNE WINDS WILL  
LIE WEST OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE ACROSS THE GULF  
AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT. SCATTERED TO  
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA EXTENDS S TO A BASE OVER THE  
SW CARIBBEAN WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE  
REMAINDER BASIN. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG  
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN  
63W AND 75W, INCLUDING PUERTO RICO, THE MONA PASSAGE AND  
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS E CUBA BEING SUPPORTED BY  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE SW N ATLC. THIS SHOWER  
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL REGION OF  
THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO  
THE MIDDLE LEVELS AND THEN DRIFTS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE EPAC  
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NW COLOMBIA  
AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 11N. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO  
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING  
WHEN A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA AND  
RIDGING TO THE E SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 63W  
AND 75W, INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THIS SHOWER  
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS  
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS TO THE  
MIDDLE LEVELS AND THEN DRIFTS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TROPICAL  
STORM RINA. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN THE SW N ATLC, ONE  
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THAT LACKS CONVECTION AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE  
BAHAMAS TO E CUBA ALONG 74W. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH SUPPORT  
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. E OF  
THE TROUGH, THE DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N  
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND  
70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE  
AZORES ISLANDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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