292  
WTNT44 KNHC 072033  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
500 PM AST TUE NOV 07 2017  
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RINA HAS A SHEARED APPEARANCE WITH AN  
ASYMMETRIC AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER  
ALONG WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN  
EARLIER ASCAT PASS HAD 35 KT WINDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND,  
GIVEN THAT THE PASS LIKELY MISSED THE STRONGEST WINDS, THE WIND  
SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  
 
RINA IS MOVING IN A MODERATE SHEAR, MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT  
CHARACTERIZED BY COOL UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COUNTERACTING COOL  
SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE DON'T CHANGE  
MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, SO A CONTINUATION OF THE SLOW  
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME, RINA IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER INTO HIGHER SHEAR, WHICH  
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN RINA INTO AN  
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY  
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND THE OFFICIAL  
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT, CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL FOR A PEAK  
INTENSITY.  
 
RINA IS MOVING NORTHWARD, NOW AT 16 KT. THE STORM SHOULD TURN TO  
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC LATE  
TOMORROW. RINA SHOULD MOVE QUITE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON  
THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE  
GLOBAL MODELS, OTHER THAN SOME FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES, REMAIN IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE LATEST FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF  
THE PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR THE CORRECTED-CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST OF THE  
GUIDANCE STRETCH THE SYSTEM OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC, CAUSING THE  
LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS WEST OF IRELAND.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 07/2100Z 33.8N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH  
12H 08/0600Z 36.2N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH  
24H 08/1800Z 39.4N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH  
36H 09/0600Z 43.0N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH  
48H 09/1800Z 48.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page