045  
WTNT44 KNHC 080236  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 07 2017  
 
RINA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ACQUIRED SOME SUB-TROPICAL  
CHARACTERISTICS THIS EVENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER REMAINS  
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY MASS OF CONVECTION, BUT THE  
CONVECTION HAS LOOSELY WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF  
THE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN OVERALL BANDING.  
RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN  
THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD AND THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED  
TO AROUND 45 KT. RINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT  
OF MODERATE SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,  
HOWEVER SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH. BY EARLY THURSDAY, RINA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER  
WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD  
BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY LATE THURSDAY.  
 
RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 010/16 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST  
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE  
SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGIN TO  
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN  
STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD  
AGREEMENT AND THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS  
AIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED AMONG THE  
GLOBAL MODELS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ALONG A FRONTAL  
ZONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/0300Z 35.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH  
12H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH  
24H 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH  
36H 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
48H 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BROWN  
 
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