915  
WTNT44 KNHC 082032  
TCDAT4  
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192017  
500 PM AST WED NOV 08 2017  
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO RINA IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THE  
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  
OTHERWISE, THE LARGE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT  
SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE  
MICROWAVE DATA STILL INDICATE RINA IS BEST CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL.  
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM  
EARLIER TODAY. RINA SHOULD LOSE ALL DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS IT  
MOVES OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A FRONTAL  
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST  
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.  
THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR OR WEST OF  
IRELAND BY DAY 3, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ISN'T CLEAR ON  
EXACTLY WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR.  
 
RINA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD, NOW AT ABOUT 20 KT. THE  
STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, AS SEEN ON WATER  
VAPOR IMAGES, WHICH HAS KEPT THE CYCLONE A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST. HOWEVER, RINA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD  
OVERNIGHT AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE  
CYCLONE LEAVING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ENTERING STRONGER  
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE MODELS ARE AGAIN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM, SO THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO  
THE WEST, SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS AND CORRECTED  
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/2100Z 40.9N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH  
12H 09/0600Z 44.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
24H 09/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
36H 10/0600Z 53.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
48H 10/1800Z 55.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP  
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BLAKE  
 
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