455  
AXNT20 KNHC 090001  
TWDAT  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
701 PM EST WED NOV 8 2017  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA  
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH  
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE  
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE  
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
2315 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES
 
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.9N 48.6W AT 08/2100 UTC,  
OR ABOUT 400 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND, MOVING NORTH AT 20  
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 41N-42N BETWEEN 47W-49W. SEE THE  
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS  
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
   
..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
 
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N14W  
TO 10N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM  
10N27W TO 07N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-32W, AND  
FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 45W-47W.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...  
 
AS OF 2100 UTC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE  
NEAR 31N85W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT  
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE  
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N93W TO 18N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS  
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA  
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF  
THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT.  
EXPECT FOR THE FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE  
NW GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...  
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO THE COAST OF N  
COLOMBIA NEAR 12.5N74.5W TO 07N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE,  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E CUBA AND JAMAICA. FURTHER S, THE EASTERN  
EXTENT OF THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN  
ALONG 09N BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE  
CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE  
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER  
LEVEL LOW IS OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF  
THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA, PUERTO RICO,  
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A LOW TO FORM OFF  
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 14N77W WITH CONVECTION.  
   
..HISPANIOLA
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM HAITI. IN ADDITION UPPER LEVEL  
DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
OVER ALL OF S HISPANIOLA, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE.  
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND FOR  
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND  
LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...  
 
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON  
TROPICAL STORM RINA. IN THE W ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS  
FROM 28N76W TO 21N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR  
30N63W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM  
26N48W TO 19N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE  
TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED  
OVER E CUBA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW AS FAR E AS 60W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM  
19N-23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER  
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N47W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE  
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO REACH THE W  
ATLANTIC ON THU. ALSO EXPECT THE E CUBA UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT  
TO THE S BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT  
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE  
 

 
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